As Kazakhstan gears up to go to the polls for a presidential election following the resignation of long-serving strongman Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country is heading into its most interesting and turbulent election in well over a decade.
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| A polling station in Almaty, complete with balloons to create a festive atmosphere. |
For anyone interested in taking a deep dive into Kazakh political life ahead of the vote on June 9th, Dark Shadows is a great place to start. Published in October by Bloomsbury-owned I.B. Tauris, the book has proven so popular that the first edition has sold out and it’s just gone into a second print run.
Author Joanna Lillis has been covering presidential elections in Kazakhstan since 2005, through first-hand, on-the-ground reporting that allows the opinions of Kazakhstan’s people about their political leaders shine through.
She traces the trajectory of Nazarbayev first breaking the 90% barrier in that 2005 election (with 91% of the vote) to his eye-popping 98% victory in the last election in 2015.
Why does this matter today? It’s been 14 years since a Kazakh presidential election candidate featured an opposition candidate—but this vote is very different from any that went before.
Firstly, Nazarbayev won’t feature on the ballot, so—even given that he’s micromanaging the succession and is certain of victory for his anointed successor, interim president Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev—it’s still a historic moment for Kazakhstan.
Secondly, this ballot paper will contain a candidate with a track record of criticising the authorities for the first time since 2005—so even though Amirzhan Kosanov stands no chance of winning electoral proceedings totally controlled by the powers-that-be (down to rigging and ballot stuffing, according to international monitors), voters will get more of a choice than they have in previous rubberstamp proceedings. Some are sceptical about whether Kosanov is really a true opposition candidate, so you can read about his two decades of engagement in opposition politics in chapter 7 of Dark Shadows and make up your own mind.
Cheerleaders are touting this as Kazakhstan’s most competitive presidential election ever—and while it may be the most competitive for over a decade, amid all the hype it’s worth dipping back into Dark Shadows to recall what kind of political system Nazarbayev is bequeathing—and why elections are about so much more than the content of a ballot paper.
The system is one in which no opposition parties exist legally; where an ostensible challenger in a presidential election once confessed to voting against himself and for Nazarbayev; and where parliament contains not a single opposition member. (See Dark Shadows chapter 7, Bread and Circuses)
It’s one in which opposition leaders have died in mysterious circumstances. Zamanbek Nurkadilov’s death in 2005 was ruled a suicide—although he was shot twice in the chest and once in the head. As for the political assassination of Altynbek Sarsenbayev in 2006, much about the circumstances of that barbarous killing remains murky although there have been two trials over the murder. (See chapter 2, A Family Affair)
The political playing field is also constrained by the muzzled media environment, which means that opposition-minded politicians struggle to get their messages out (though social media has been a gamechanger here). (See chapter 5, Published and Be Damned; and chapter 9, Stop the Presses)
It’s also an environment in which civil society and public assembly are so strictly controlled that peaceful protesters routinely find themselves locked up, as they have on many occasions in recent weeks. (See chapter 8, Back to the USSR)
All this and much more about Kazakhstan’s political scene is detailed in Dark Shadows—so if you want to get to grips with the nuances of next month’s election, read the book!
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