European Interest, an independent online news and feature publication, has conducted an in-depth interview with Joanna Lillis, drawing on some of the themes developed in her book Dark Shadows: inside the Secret World of Kazakhstan.
Is Kazakhstan's 78-year-old President Nursultan Nazarbayev getting ready to hand over the mic to a successor? |
Below, we have a taster from this cracking interview, to read the whole piece, click here.
Nazarbayev is 78 years old. Is there any indication that he is preparing his succession? What will happen in the country after he leaves power?This is a good question, and one on many people’s lips – although I have to add that the question has been on the agenda for all the time I have been living in Kazakhstan, which is 13 years.
There are indications that Nazarbayev and his entourage are preparing for the succession, such as the limited political reforms designed to create a more collegial system of government enacted last year. However, I would add that the passage of constitutional amendments that granted Nazarbayev the right to intervene in policy-making after his retirement dates back to 2010 – and he has not stepped down yet, so anyone who thinks he is preparing to do so now is quite rash, in my view! Furthermore, I believe that it would be hard for a man with such a towering personality and a strong opinion of the benefits of his own rule, who has ruled the country for nearly three decades, to step down and take a back seat in politics for the rest of his life.
Nevertheless, Nazarbayev is now 78, and as an astute politician he, and also his entourage, must be engaged in succession planning behind the scenes. I am inclined to think that when the time comes it will not be as dramatic as people think – look at Uzbekistan, where people predicted all kinds of dire scenarios when the time for a change of president came, but the succession went smoothly – albeit undemocratically. Likewise, in Kazakhstan I think the elites will consolidate around a certain figure and ensure that person’s election, when the time comes, albeit possibly with a cat fight behind the scenes.
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